HOW TO WIN BIG IN SPORTPESA (BETTING)

Here are my top ten tips for anyone  betting online for the first time. My focus is football (soccer) but the  lessons here are applicable to all sorts of betting.

1 Get Organised
Every  betting journey should begin with a blank sheet of paper and the  formulation of your ‘to do’ list. Here are the essentials you need to  do. 
Set up a dedicated bank account to be used solely for betting (and nothing else). Allocate your betting fund to that account. 

Open  as many betting accounts as you can and be prepared to take advantage  of those free bet introductory offers. If you use them wisely (the  technique is called Matched Betting and it is a subject that is widely  covered specifically on a thread in the website Money Saving

Expert: BETTINGKE

You can add hundreds, even thousands of Shillings to your betting bank, for free, and at no risk to your capital. 
Try and familiarise yourself with the various odds comparison websites such as BettingKE,  The name of the game is backing your selections at the best available prices and to do that you need to use sites like these. 
Keep  a spreadsheet of your bets. Whether you are following a series of  tipping services or your own selections it is vital to know where you  are doing well and poorly and crucially how much is in your pot so you  can adjust your staking accordingly.
Make sure you have access to as  many betting channels as you can. Life is lived on the hoof these days  and we can’t always guarantee we’ll be in front of our PC’s when we need  to place a bet. Make sure you have all your bookmakers phone numbers  punched into your phone address book and spread your bets around their  various web platforms, telephone betting operations and shops where  appropriate. Not only will this allow you to bet while you get on with  your life, it will also allow you to eke out the maximum amount of life  you can get from your profitable betting accounts. Sadly, restrictions  and account closures are a fact of life for successful punters but if  you shop around and spread your stakes where you can between firms then  you will greatly aid your chances of staying under the radar.
2 Find Your Niche
One  of the biggest traps we can fall into as punters is dancing to the  bookies’ tune by betting when the odds or any edge in an event is very  much against us. Whether you are following tipping services or backing  your own selections you should look to carve out your own expert niches.  Specialise on what you know – or where your instincts tell you that you  can have an advantage over the hard-pressed compilers. If you are  choosing tipsters evaluate their claims using the same criteria. The  subtext here is: don’t bet on games out of boredom, don’t bet just  because something is on the telly and don’t get sucked into bets  advertised by the bookies. The odds and the info will be very much in  their favour – unless of course, you have done your research and  genuinely know something different. Always bet on your terms not the  bookies’ terms.
3 Stake Consistently
The most common causes  for betting failure lies with basic greed, over-optimism in terms of  what is achievable and punters overstaking in relation to their actual  means. You will not succeed without the benefit of patience, balance and  realism in your betting. Follow their lessons, keep good records and  operate a sensible banking set up and you really are more than half way  there to becoming one of that hallowed 2% of winning punters.
4 Only Back Selections Where You Are Happy That You Have A Better Chance Of Winning Than The Odds Imply
The  name of the game is value betting that is backing bets where you have a  greater chance of winning than the bookmakers odds imply. In order to  evaluate bookmakers’ odds you will firstly have to re-convert either the  fractions or decimals using this chart Odds Probability Table
For  example, once you have a sense that the bookies believe that Blackburn  have a 50% (evens, 2.0) chance of beating Wolves in The Championship,  that the draw is a 28% chance (5/2, 3.50) and that the visitors are a  best price 20% chance (3/1, 4.0) you are half way there to forming your  own view on the relevant odds. 
Only when you have broken down all  your potential bets into a percentage comparison between your estimate  of the prices and the bookie’s bets prices will you get a decent handle  on where the value, if there is any, lies in a particular bet. 
When  your percentages suggest that the bookies have got it wrong and that the  bet you want to back has a greater chance of winning than they think  then it is time to do a bit more research (just to confirm your own  view) and to consider having a bet. If you don’t do this level of due  diligence prior to placing each bet then you are almost guaranteed to be  a long term loser betting. Unfortunately, if you want to back your own  fancies there are no short-cuts in this game. Thankfully, the rewards  can be ample pay for the work you put in.
5 Be Sensibly Ambitious But Realistic In Your Expectations
When  you consider that most pro punters will be looking for a return on  investment of between 5%-15% on their football bets over a season then  you should quickly realise that the profits you can make are all  relative to the size of your betting bank, the amount of bets you have  and the nature of your staking. As a beginner, you can forget those  dreams of relaxing on a sun-kissed island in retirement just yet. But  from small acorns big trees grow and as you keep growing your bank and  turning over hundreds of bets your stakes will rise proportionately too.  The trick here is to be realistic at the outset, set yourself some  attainable objectives (for example, doubling your bank size over the  course of a year) and not becoming disheartened by failing to attain pie  in the sky dreams overnight. 
6 Be Prepared For Losing Runs – There Is Nothing You Can Do To Avoid Them
It  is a fact of life that even as a successful punter, a very successful  punter even, you will spend your betting career backing more losers than  winners. A high strike rate of say 40% in football matches still  corresponds to significantly more than half your bets losing and there  is certainly no guarantees that your strike rate will maintain a steady  straight line on the graph. Quite the opposite in fact. It will almost  certainly ebb and flow throughout the season, in both directions and  often dramatically. 
Unless you are prepared for this fact of life  and can steel yourself to cope with it you are unlikely to stay the  course. Though sound staking and money management can protect your  capital to some degree the fact is that losing runs take their toll on  the spirit as much as the wallet. Not everyone can cope with the  rollercoaster of emotions that accompanies a volatile run of results but  unfortunately you won’t know how you might respond until you are  actually in that situation for yourself. 
If you find then, that you  can’t hack it then accept the fact with good grace. The moment betting  is no longer fun – even as a profession – and starts to negatively  impact on other areas of your life is the moment you should consider  doing something else instead. There is no shame in discovering that  betting, with all its swings and roundabouts, is ultimately not for you.  
7 Treat Your Losers As An Opportunity Rather Than A Threat
Nobody  likes losing but the fact is you learn relatively little from those  days when everything falls into place and you record those red letter  winning days. At the opposite end of the spectrum though, when the ref’s  decision has cost you a winner, when the bets have been scuppered by  howling gales and cut-up pitches and when everything you’ve done has  fallen on stony ground then it’s not as bad as it first seems. Trust me.  Dust yourself down and once your emotions are settled allow yourself a  period of reflection. Did you make good bets despite the results on the  day? Could you have worked harder having missed a vital piece of  information before kick off? Did you overstake or repeat a mistake you’d  sworn you’d never make again. Learn to be a good winner and a good  loser by taking an even course at all times. Remember today’s losers are  tomorrow’s passport to profits.
8 Record And Analyse Your Bets
Keep  a master spreadsheet detailing all your bets and keep different sheets  for all the types of bets and/or tipster services you follow. At set  intervals it is a good idea to re-evaluate how things are going. Are  your stakes big enough? Are there certain bets you do well and badly  with that you need to take account of? Are there times of the season  where you should stake more (or less) aggressively to reflect your edge  over the bookies? These are all questions you can answer with a  comprehensive bet record in front of you.
9 Keep Everything In Proportion
Winning  and losing are simply two sides of the same coin. What goes against you  today will run for you tomorrow – and vice versa. It is the end results  that count and where you do exert the most control is on the path you  take to achieve your objectives. Don’t beat yourself up unduly or swerve  asking yourself the hard questions that are inevitable – and welcome-  when things go wrong. Learn to be a good winner and a good loser and  keep your winnings and losses in perspective. If you can’t do that, and  betting becomes a source of anxiety and rollercoaster emotions then this  game probably isn’t for you. If you can keep an even keel when all  around are losing their cool then congratulations. You are well on the  way to becoming a successful punter investor.
10 Don’t Follow The Herd
To  make betting pay you need to know your own mind. Don’t be swayed by the  write-ups you read if you think you have a valid case for backing  something and don’t be put off by the know-alls online or in the media.  They are probably losers anyway. 
Finding your own road and  incorporating it with the best, most reliable information around is the  way to make betting pay. As in most things, the common consensus is  overrepresented in betting and factored into prices accordingly. 
Don’t  be afraid to bet against the crowd and have the courage of your  convictions when a bet screams value to you. On a similar note, temper  general caution with bravery on those occasions where you think you have  value on your side. Recognise the bad bets and cut them out yes, but  don’t be afraid to have decent size bets on where the situation merits  it. Over time, experience will tell you exactly when those occasions  are.